So suppose that we consider a deviation in which, and again I've forgotten your name in which Stacy stands as well.
假设我们考虑一种偏差的情况下,我又忘了你的名字了,斯泰西也参选了
It shows the standard deviation of the return on the portfolio as a function of the expected return on the portfolio.
它是投资组合的收益标准差,关于预期收益率的函数图像。
7% 77% is class average and the standard deviation was 17% so you can see where things lie. 50% is a pass.
7是平均水平,标准偏差是%,这就是事情所在,50%就及格。
so all of these things with addition of the deviation of the policy, personnel and material to Iraq, led to the turnanoud.
所有这些事情加上政策,人员,物资向伊拉克的转移,使得局势有了改变。
So the other possible deviation we have to consider, is a deviation of the form of one of these guys dropping out.
那么另外一个我们必须要考虑的偏差,是她们俩有一个人退出选举
He will not tolerate any deviation in the service of alien gods.
他无法容忍对任何异教神灵的偏向。
It could be normal, everything, that would be a Gaussian, where if you recall there was a mean, and a standard deviation, and most values were going to be close to the mean.
可能是正态分布,也就是高斯分布,只要有平均值和标准偏差值,你就可以进行调用,大部分的值都是集中在平均值附近的。
The next phrase, B-- is very similar, but here it takes the deviation-- And gets it back-- gets us back to the tonic.
下一乐句,B,与之前非常相似,但从这里偏离,又回来,回到主音
.. You want to get it-- if you keep adding assets, you can do better and better on your portfolio standard deviation.
你想得到-,如果不断增加资产,组合的标准差就会越来越小。
So clearly, that's not, thank you, that's not a profitable deviation and it's also not a profitable deviation for people on the left.
所以很明显,那不是,谢谢,那不是个有利的偏离并且,对左边的人来说也不是个有利的偏离
Let's suppose that all of them are the same-- they all have the same standard deviation.
我们假设这些资产的收益率标准差-,均相等。
You could always find a portfolio that had a higher expected return for the same standard deviation.
你总是可以找到一个投资组合,具有较高的预期回报,而标准差不变。
If there's a large standard deviation it would be spread.
如果标准偏差值很大,那么它就比较分散。
An eight standard deviation event happens once out of every six trillion trials.
而八个标准差的偏离就意味着,六万亿分之一的概率
So there's three possible types of deviation here that we need to check.
这有三种可能的偏差,需要我们验证
Especially if there is a small standard deviation.
特别是当标准偏差值很小的情况。
But there's a second reason why this is a really bad deviation.
但认为这是很差的偏离还有第二个原因
Why isn't it a profitable deviation for Stacy?
为什么对斯泰西来说它不是个有利的偏离
What is the standard deviation?
标准差是多少
We need to check another entrant from the outside, left wing or right wing, we need to check another entrant in the middle, there is only one possible one there, and there's a third kind of deviation we should check, what's the third type of deviation?
我们需要验证另外一个外部的参选人,左派或右派,我们需要验证另外一个中间的参选人,只有一个可能参选的人,还有第三种要验证的偏差类型,第三种偏差类型是什么
Over this time period, that portfolio had an expected return of something like a little over 9% and it had a standard deviation of a little over 9%.
在这个时间段,这个投资组合的预期收益率是,9%多一点%,标准差是9%多一点。
You can't come up with a number to describe the twenty-five standard deviation event; it's just too large a number, I think, for any of us to really comprehend.
你根本无法想出一个数字,来描述这个偏离25倍标准差的事件,对我们普通人来说,这是个难以想象的天文数字
The standard deviation is the square root of the variance.
标准差是方差的平方根
You want to, for any given expected return, you want to minimize the standard deviation, so it's the left-most line and that means that everyone will be holding the same portfolio.
你希望,在期望收益固定的情况下,你肯定希望将标准差最小化,而这条线是最左边的线,这就意味着所有人,都愿意持有这样的投资组合。
So is this a profitable deviation for Stacy?
这对斯泰西来说是个有利的偏差吗
So, for example, at an annual expected return of 12% if I have a portfolio of stocks, bonds, and oil I can get a standard deviation of something like 8% on my portfolio.
例如,在年预期收益12%的情况下%,我有股票,债券和石油的投资组合,在这个组合里,我的投资组合可以取到8%的标准差。
So, the optimal thing to do if you live in a world like this n is to get n as large possible and you can reduce the standard deviation of the portfolio very much and there's no cost in terms of expected return.
如果现实中也这样简单的话,那么你就尽量增大,这样就能让投资组合的标准差,就会大大降低,从预期收益率的角度来看,这样做的成本是零。
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